Tuesday, May 20, 2014

16th Loksabha Election : An Analysis

The 16th Loksabha Election has been termed as landmark and historical judgment by the people in the entire life of world’s largest Democracy till date. This election has changed the entire political setup & its structure from surface to bottom level. On the one hand , Congress Party has been smashed. And , on other hand , Regional parties are struggling for their existence in respective states.
BJP led NDA along with commercial media are claiming this change as the effect of Gujarat Model , Modinomics , Modi Wave & some even some are visualizing it as Modi Tsunami. But , We think ….. it is not justice to see this paramount change in such a narrow way of thinking. There are several reasons behind this change which led to its birth. All these have got its shape during the tenure of Govt. of India under UPA – II.
The change is an inevitable Law in Nature as well as in Spirited Democratic setup of Governance. But , The change which has been taken palace in 16th Loksabha Election has NOT get developed in one day. There are several reasons which are the product of the different actions & in-actions of UPA-II led  Government during 15th Loksabha. The paramount and cardinal reasons can be seen in different heads.
Strong Anti-Congress Sentiment & Mindset of Crowds :
Corruption charges , CAG over activism , Un-warranted attitude of CBI and sentiment of Mr. Ranjit Sinha , Judicial Hyper Activism and Judicial Criticism , Delay in Policy formulation , Policy Paralysis , Not Proper Leadership , Dual Power Center , Coalition Compulsions , Dominating Position of Regional Parties ,  Un-Democratic & Un-Constitutional activities of Shri Rahul Gandhi , Arrogance among the Minister and Leaders of Congress etc have led to create a Strong Anti-Congress Sentiment and Mindset among Crowds of India.
Aspiration for Change
The first & foremost thing is Change. Change of Party in Power is Pivotal in Spirited Democracy. And , at the same time it is also true that …. Election for Immature Democracy is just like a Movie in theater. Every time , People want to see new movie which may be based on same story , actor , director etc. Congress led UPA and other regional parties had nothing to Release except some previous achievement and old agendas. But , Most unfortunate is that ….. UPA-II has miserably failed to project its Agendas , Issues and Vision in an attractive way as movie director used to do for their upcoming new Movies.
On the other hand , BJP led NDA also has old agenda of Religion , Anti-Dalitism , Anti-Muslim , Hindu Nationalism etc. But , They have directed their movie in a better way under the name of Development , Change etc and also get succeeded to Program , Design and Manufacture the Opinion of People with the Strong and full Hearted Support and Help of Indian Commercial Media. And , Indian crowd has made it , all these issues coupled in this movie directed by top leadership of BJP , Super Hit on the Box Office of 16th Loksabha.
Anti – Congress Tsunami
Biased Media and BJP are seeing the change as a result of Strong Modi Wave or even some are saying it Modi Tsunami. But  in real sense , There is neither Strong Modi Wave  nor Modi Tsunami ….. But a Strong Anti-Congress Tsunami which led to minimize the status of Congress to the level of 40 Loksabha Seats , which is itself a Landmark in the entire history of Congress till date. And by default , Opposition Party has got its all overwhelming benefits. And , the same has happened and resulted on 16th of May in the form of landmark victory of BJP led NDA in 16th Loksabha Election 2014.
Mediacracy & Marketization of Media
The 16th Loksabha Election is different from previous election in many ways. The most cardinal is the use of Social Media along with the Commercial and Market Oriented Media in general and Electronic Media and their biased behavior in particular. Most Interesting is that for the first time , Entire election of 16th Loksabha was fought on the ground of Television with Anchors as their Sepoy and Social media as Balcony for Voters specially misguided Youths. And , Crowds of India has formed their Opinion not by their own Thought Processing but by just seeing TV Channels. And , Anchors had Planned , Designed , Managed , Manufactured , Marketized , Advertised and Sold their biased & selfish Opinion to the masses of India. The way in which TV Channels has acted and supported to a particular political party is a Question mark on the Spirit of Media itself. Interviews are Framed , Pre-planned , Manufactured , Designed and Telecasted just in such a way in which they want irrespective of the Spirit of Journalism. In this respect Shri Kejriwal was fully correct that Indian Media has been bought by Political Parties specially BJP. A Huge Sum of Money was mobilized to Manufacture the Views and Opinion of Indian Masses. BJP has Invested , Worked and Focused its all Effort and Money to build a Development Oriented Image and Change Oriented Cloud under the Sky of Indian Loksabha Election 2014 where Media has supported them with full of their Heart & Soul. 16th Loksabha Election and landmark change in Political Climate , in letter , are the product of Democracy , But in Spirit , These are just the Product of Mediacracy and Marketized Media of Indian soil.
Illusion of  Development
 In this election media , BJP led NDA and others has plotted the chart of election and pointed out Gujarat Model of Development. But , frankly speaking , there is No Issue of Development in this election specially Gujarat Model. If there is any Development Issue in this election then Smt. Sheila Dixit in Delhi Vidhan Sabha Election Result , Shri Nitish Kumar in Bihar in this 16th Loksabha Election Result must have a Say. But , There is Nothing as such.
We all know that Gujarat was one among the Developed Region since Britishraj and well known for its commercial , industrial and trade activities. After Independence , Shri Nehru along with Shri Patel have committed themselves to develop Kandala as a counter part of Karachi. But , This does not mean that Shri Modi has done nothing in Gujarat. He has polished , painted and continued the old legacy of Gujarat and its development. It’s a Matter of praise. And , Shri Modi must be given full credit for it. There is Industrial and other kind of developments but when we come to see the Social Indicators then Gujarat stands even below the some of the North-Estern States of India ( Raghuram Rajan Committee Report ). Even today in Developed Gujarat , Dalits and other Socially Backward Castes are struggling for survival. Is it the Development of Gujarat & Gujarat Development Model ?
But , The way in which Shri Nitish Kumar has changed the Climate of Bihar Development is a landmark and also recognized by Planning Commission , World Bank and other International Organizations. He converted a least developing stated into one among the fastest developing state of India in general and on Social Indicators in particular. But , JD(U) led by Shri Nitish Kumar has been totally smashed. This does not give any reason that Why Nitish Model of Development was ignored by the people or out rightly rejected by people of Bihar? Now , One can easily understand and conclude that If there was any kind of Development Issue then Shri Nitish must have a Say in this election result. But , NO ….. Why ?
And , One , also , can not deny the Development made by Sheila Dixit led government in Delhi. But She also has got the same fate in Vidhan Sabha Election and Congress Party in 16th Loksabha Election. She was thrown away by people of Delhi. Then now , Where is the Development Issue?
Religious Polarization                                       
In 2004 , India Shining of BJP became an illusion. UPA came in power under the leadership of Mrs. Gandhi & Dr. Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister. But repeating the same in 2009 has led to the destruction of BJP. Even BJP and its top leadership have lost all the hope. The result was in front of us “ in the Form of an Un-democratic , Unconstitutional and Irresponsible behavior of Opposition ” led of BJP in parliament. Almost total dys-functioning of Parliament is just only because of Un-Democratic & Irresponsible Opposition. Even Subhas Kashayap , Constitutional Expert , has termed …… Opposition (BJP) is behaving in such a way that they are going to remain in Opposition forever.”
The return of Congress led UPA in 2009 ….. has made the BJP leadership to think about some kind of Miracle which can revive the party. Then , they find Shri Modi as option who is famous for Gujarat Model of Riot in 2002. Even Shri Atal Ji did NOT like him and want to impose The President Rule during Riot. But Shri Lal Krishan Advani , Advocate of RSS , VHP & other religious organizations of Hinduism , had saved Modi Govt. in 2002. Here , One can easily see that to get Power each & everything is fine and same is advocated , practiced and promoted by BJP during 16th Loksabha Election 2014. All Indian know that Every Indian either Hindu or Muslim or any other all came to know Shri Modi just only because of Gujarat Model of Riot in 2002. Just before the months of Election Religious Sentiment was ignited in Mujaffar Nagar , UP which has divided whole of India in general and North India other in particular on the basis of religion. And , result is in front of us in the form of Historic mandate to BJP led NDA. Now , One can understand that Miracle has happened.
The wave of religious polarization was as high as that BSP has got only its Dalit Vote Bank , not the Bahujan’s. And , so called parties of OBCs that is SP has got only Yadav  and very few OBCs & full Hearted Support and Vote of Muslims , as earlier the Tradition was.
Here , Due to Mujaffar Nagar Riot ….. People got united on the basis of religion and by default BJP get benefited. This is the only major cause regarding the worsen situation of regional parties in UP & Bihar where major contractors of religion use to reside. And , everyone knows the role of UP & Bihar regarding the formation of Govt. at union level.
BSP [19.6% (2014) , 27.42% (2009)] , SP [22.02% (2014)  , 23.26% (2009)] , BJP [ 42.30% (2014)  , 17.30% (2009)] , Congress [ 07.50% (2014)  , 18.25% (2009)].
Also , Anti Dalit & Anti-Dalit Reservation statement of BJP has separated the OBCs & other Hindus from Bahenji led BSP which resulted and concluded BSP only with Dalit Vote Bank. SP has suffered but traditional OBCs remained with SP , the substation of vote of SP was the Votes of Brahmin , Kshatriya , Bashyas and some other OBCs. And , about Congress , there is no need to talk about it. Overall religious polarization made , This election was very destructive for regional parties specially BSP , Congress , SP , JDU , RJD etc.
Anti-Dalit & Anti-Dalit Reservation Statements :
It is well know fact that The Hatred of Hindu Upper Caste against Dalits is much much ….. much stronger than the differences of these Hindus even with the Muslims in all ways. Hindu Upper Caste and Muslims can eat with each other and can share their interests with each other , But a Dalit even can not take a Seat with these Upper Castes Hindus.
Everyone knows about the exploitation of Dalits in Indian Society. Manual Scavenging , Inhuman Treatment , Devdasi , Rape , Murder and even to set up them on fire and other kind of assault , attack on Dalit Women on every inch of Indian Soil has no voice in Indian Society , Administration and Politics even after a long period of Indian independence. Rape with any Upper Caste women in India has a voice as strong as that can sack and use to sack the foundation of Delhi along with every nuck & corner of Indian Territory , Society and Corridors of Power….. But Nothing is as such regarding Dalits. Why ? Each & every inch of Indian Soil has acted as court of exploitation with Dalits since the inception of Sanatani Aryans. And , even now ,  No one want to see and also can not see any kind of improvement in status of these Dalits in any manner , forget about to facilitate the Dalits.
In Janadesh 2014 on Loksabha Channel , Rajiv Mishra have visited a village near by Delhi and was asking about people’s views regarding this Election. There are People of all age group from 5 to 70+ years all have got a seat there but a Dalit ( more than 65 years old , who also was a BDC ) was standing. A 5 years old Child of upper caste can get a chair or cot but a 65+ years old Dalit was denied. Why …..  Only just because of the Caste. This can make one to understand the Hatred of Upper Caste Hindus with exploited Dalits.
This is enough to show the Social Status of Dalits in Indian Society. Even in election period when each & every vote has a deciding value. No one use to talk about the OBC Reservation but Dalit Reservation has always been a burning issue in Indian politics since Ambedkar Era. OBC’s are only Economically Weak but Socially as Strong as a Brahmin. So their Reservation may be taken away by providing justified and even more than Needed Financial Assistance …… But , No one want to discuss about it.
On the other hand , Dalits are Exploited , Deprived , Depressed , Out casted , alienated from society since time immemorial. This Group of Indian Society is NOT only Economically & Socially weak but fighting to survive in the society of pathetic discrimination. A Dalit may have Higher Education , May be a Bureaucrat , Political Leader , Philosopher , Thinker , Business Man or anything with High caliber …… but still He has always been denied the Equal Status in Indian Society in all ways. Why ?
After knowing all these Dalit Issues and Conditions of Dalits in the stratified & discriminatory Indian Society , The Anti-Dalit and Anti-Dalit Reservation issues were pumped by BJP as to remove the Reservation of Dalits & The Comments by the Fickle & unsound Minded Peoples like Shri Ram Dev. And , Strong Anti-Dalit attitude of these parties and some self-styled advocates of equality have easily bought the votes of all upper class Hindu just by raising the issues like Removal of SC Reservation. And , the Indian Hindu Upper Caste Youths , which has near about more than 90% , have supported the BJP and its Anti-Dalit Attitude and Anti-Dalit Reservation stand with full Heart and Soul. In India , Just Being Anti-Dalit , Anyone can bought the Vote , Support , Sympathy and Mandate of all Hindus ( except Dalits ) and even other religious communities including Muslims , Sikhs , Parsi etc.  In Indian Society , Each & Everyone including Muslims and others ( except Dalits ) can get all what they want in social sphere , in political and in economic sphere.  And , All will support for all these to each other. But in case of Dalits , entire Indian Society irrespective of any Religion or anything , All of them get united to oppose all these if these are for improvement of Dalits. Frankly speaking , NO one want that Dalits , also , have an equal status in society , administration , judiciary , politics and economy in any manner.
And , Indian Legislators must understand that OBC reservation may be a Privilege because of Economic Backwardness. But SC Reservation is not a privilege but a Right because of Social Discrimination , Exploitation , Deprivation , Cruelty etc by Indian Society and Indian Social Structure. And , Economic Backwardness of Dalits is the result of all these Social Discriminations. Further , Cause of this Social Discrimination is the existence of Caste System in Indian society. So , Dalit Reservation , on the basis of caste ( because exploitation , discrimination , deprivation and all other inhumane cruelties have taken its course of action on the basis of Caste itself – Disease must be treated on the basis of Cause not only on the basis of symptoms ) , must be continued as a Right at least till the existence of Caste System in Indian Society.
Problems of Coalition form of Govt.
People want to just get out of the trap of coalition form of govt. ruling since 1990s which has created a blockage in the way of decision making , policy formulation , execution etc even to the extent that National Interest of Country including Internal & External Security. Several Times , Dr. Manmohan Singh , Hon’ble Prime Minister of India has mentioned about these compulsions in his statements. This factor also was also an advantage to BJP by default.
Conclusion
Overall , The historic mandate to BJP led NDA is not because of any kind of Gujarat Model of Development , Modi Tsunami or anything else but only because of High Anti-Congress Sentiments , Strong Anti-Congress Tsunami , Gujarat Model of Riot , Anti-Dalitism , Communalism , Religious Polarization , Aspiration for Change among crowds , Mediacracy , Maketization of Media , Problems of Coalition form of Govt. leading Policy paralysis. All these coupled with each other led to give a strong benefit to BJP by default. Because people want a govt. other than Congress. But there was NO other option or any strong front who can think about to give an alternative to the masses of India and can claim to form a stable Govt. at Union level except BJP which has near about pan India coverage. So , in such a situation BJP was bound to get benefited by default. And , the same has happened.
Anyway , all these changes are part & parcel of any dynamic , spirited and vibrant Democracy. All these changes makes a Democracy as living Democracy. In Living Democracy like ours , Mistakes and Blunder get corrected in Democratic way by Democracy itself. Because Democracy Heals its wound by itself.
 Rajani Kant Indra
Faculty of Law, Lucknow University, Lucknow
May 20, 2014